Quarterly Market Commentary

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Quarterly Market Commentary

Major Global Events

US-China trade spat escalates however a resolution is likely. The Trump administration imposed tariffs on $34bn of Chinese imports with a 25% levy on 818 specific Chinese goods. Trump indicate.

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"It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive, but those who can best manage change.” - Leon C. Megginson

UK

The UK economy is showing clear signs of recovering from the unexpected slowdown in the first quarter and is expected to record +1.6% annualised growth in second quarter as services, manufacturing and construction sectors recover from a weak start to the year.

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"Know what you own, and know why you own it." - Peter Lynch

US

US consumer spending regained momentum in the second quarter following a sluggish start to the year with retail sales growing 6% year-on-year and unemployment rate falling to 3.8% – the lowest level since 1969.

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"I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

Eurozone

Economic data from the Eurozone pointed to steady growth of +1.6% annualised in the first quarter with current data indicating to an acceleration to +2.0% in Q2. The composite PMI for manufacturing and services, a good lead indicator for economic growth, came in at 54.8, an improvement on the 18-month low of 54.1 seen in May.

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"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." -- George Soros

China

China's economy grew by annual rate of +6.7% in the three months to June, hitting economist forecasts however marked a slight slowdown from a +6.8% expansion recorded in the previous quarter. The slightly weaker growth is to be expected as the government introduces much-needed reforms to curb speculative investment and lending in the economy.

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"An investor without investment objectives is like a traveller without a destination." - Ralph Seger

Japan

Japanese workers' inflation-adjusted real wages rose by +1.3%, the fastest pace in two years and marking the biggest annual gain since July 2016. Wages are gradually trending higher as the labour market gets increasingly tighter. The unemployment rate has fallen to a remarkable 2.2%.

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“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” - Paul Samuelson

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodities index posted a slightly positive return in Q2 however there was vast dispersion across the different commodity sectors.

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“It’s not your salary that makes you rich, it’s your spending habits.” –Charles Jaffe