Quarterly Market Commentary

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Quarterly Market Commentary

Major Global Events

The US administration were targeting May 10th to announce a deal that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would sign later at an official summit. The decision to delay any announcement on tariffs until April suggests a bilateral agreement is on the horizon although the details still have to be finalised.

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"Too many people spend money they earned..to buy things they don't want..to impress people that they don't like." --Will Rogers

UK

The UK economy slowed during the fourth quarter of 2018 as Brexit uncertainty weighed on business investment, however economic momentum has picked-up at the start of the year according to the BoE.

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"Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work." --Thomas Edison

US

The US equity market climbed in March to end the first quarter in positive territory amid hopes for a trade deal with China and less restrictive policy from the FED.

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"Money is only a tool. It will take you wherever you wish, but it will not replace you as the driver." --Ayn Rand

Eurozone

Declining unemployment and gradually rising wages are supporting household consumption with retail sales rising by +2.8% year-on-year. The eurozone jobless rate continues to fall hitting 7.7%, its lowest level since the global financial crisis in 2008.

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"How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." --Robert G. Allen

Emerging Markets

The jump in China’s Manufacturing PMI reading from 49.2 to 50.5 was the biggest increase since 2012 (50 denotes expansion). The government survey was supported by the independent Caixin manufacturing survey which also jumped from 49.9 to 50.8.

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"It's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for." --Robert Kiyosaki

Japan

Japan’s industrial output fell in Q1 at the fastest pace in almost five years, suggesting the economy will stagnate in the first quarter as manufacturers struggle with the US-China trade war, hitting Japanese exports.

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“If you would be wealthy, think of saving as well as getting.” —Benjamin Franklin

Commodities

Gold a strong barometer for fear and uncertainty, struggled over the quarter relative to the wider commodity market as investor risk appetite returned.

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“Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway.” - Warren Buffett